5 praxtime predictions for 2015

I’m a sucker for year-end lists and predictions. So here’s 5 for 2015 that I’ll scorecard next December.

1. Apple Watch will have biometric hearbeat id. I’m not sure why I’m not reading more about this. Maybe Apple Watch won’t have biometric id. Who knows? Anyway, my September 2014 post arguing for Apple and biometric heartbeat id is here. I think biometric identity is big deal in general. And not just because of payments, but because biometric id seems like the only real contender to replace the hated username/password model. And this plays to Apple’s strengths and against Android’s weaknesses. So a natural fit.
2. Apple TV gets an app store. Sure I predicted this last year. And it’s not a novel thought. But I still think this is a big deal. It’s a necessary step towards making the large home TV screen reach its true destiny, which is to become a mere second screen for your smartphone.
3. Oculus Rift and Virtual Reality (VR) will take over thought and investment leadership for premium gaming, making the likelihood of a next generation of Xbox or Playstation console ever being released close to zero. So the prediction here is that by December 2015 the tech consensus shifts to no Playstation 5 or next gen Xbox ever coming out. And that this shift in consensus will come from the success of Oculus Rift and and VR, which will suck up all the investment and mindshare for high end gaming. This despite the fact that undoubtedly VR hype in 2015 will overshoot and we’ll see some pushback. It will still be capturing mindshare. Furthermore, at the mid-tier we’ll see traditional console gaming come under pressure from games on Apple TV and Android TV. Though I think this second shift won’t really take off until 2016.
4. Golden State Warriors not only make the NBA playoffs, but make it past the first round. Previously all my sports predictions were about my old hometown team the Cincinnati Bengals. But now with my 7 year old son always watching local Bay Area sports, gotta go with the Warriors for 2015.
5. Apple Watch gold edition pricing. Below is my Sep 2014 tweet on this one. Though I’m now wondering if $9999 could happen in 2015. Anyway, this is more just for fun, so I’ll just stick with my original tweet.

Not actual predictions, and no real shockers, but other trends of interest for 2015:

• The internet will continue towards more regional balkanization and regulation. China being the leader of course, but Europe also pushing in the same direction.
• Deep learning continues to be super hot. We’ll also see continued increase in ability for Natural Language Processing (NLP), such as Siri and Google Now. Though I think NLP still has a few more years before it really takes off.
• Messaging. Definitely big in 2015. I think Ben Thompson’s Feb 2014 post “MESSAGING: MOBILE’S KILLER APP” will hold up very well in 2015.
• Bitcoin continues it’s march forward as a payment system, not a true currency. With innovation on the blockchain also being a big deal. I suspect my 2014 posts on bitcoin will hold up fairly well next year: here and here.

Thanks for reading. Have a great 2015!