What Chess and Moore’s Law teach us about the progress of technology

Computers beating humans at chess is old news. But that’s precisely why it’s worth reviewing. Solved problems sometimes hold the best lessons. And the numerical chess rating system makes it particularly useful in quantifying some common assertions about the progress of technology.

Mundane Science and SF are awesome. Please stop it with the invisibility cloaks and FTL.

While most of my posts are about technology, at heart this is a futurist blog. Futurism is “the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.” And to be clear my focus is… Continue reading Mundane Science and SF are awesome. Please stop it with the invisibility cloaks and FTL.

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Categorized as Science

Bitcoin as Rorschach Test. Some see Traditional Currency. Others see Byzantine Generals.

This is part 2 of a two part series on Bitcoin. Part 1 here. Just before the MtGox Bitcoin exchange went bankrupt I posted that “Bitcoin is a far better payment system than currency. And that’s just fine.” A lot has happened since. Not just the MtGox collapse, but also the contested Newsweek story claiming Dorian… Continue reading Bitcoin as Rorschach Test. Some see Traditional Currency. Others see Byzantine Generals.

WhatsApp’s first year free model deserves to be emulated

As widely reported, Facebook acquired messaging service WhatsApp on Feb 19. My preferred take is from Ben Thompson here. For a more skeptical view see Arnold Kling (here and here) or Matthew Yglesias (here). But rather than debate the acquisition, I want to narrowly focus on WhatsApp’s freemium model. You get the first year free and pay $1/year for… Continue reading WhatsApp’s first year free model deserves to be emulated

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Categorized as Economics

Bitcoin is a far better payment system than currency. And that’s just fine.

This is part 1 of a two part series on Bitcoin. Part 2 here. Marc Andreesson and Matthew Yglesias had a recent twitter exchange about technology as a driver of deflation. While it may not be obvious, that deflation discussion has implications for the digital currency bitcoin, which is undoubtedly why Andreesson brought it up. If… Continue reading Bitcoin is a far better payment system than currency. And that’s just fine.

Bad Software Design. Splitting the blame between Malice, Stupidity and Difficulty.

Last week’s post on freemium resulted in some clarifying back and forth about manipulative game design using in-app-purchases (IAP). As it happens MG Siegler and John Gruber talked more generally about software design in a recent podcast, discussing Windows 8 and Facebook’s new Paper app. It’s worth tying these two together, using a design lens to… Continue reading Bad Software Design. Splitting the blame between Malice, Stupidity and Difficulty.

Internet pricing, Dungeon Keeper and the case for Minimum Viable Free Product (MVFP).

One of the great pleasures of following the tech world is seeing it rocket makers and doers to the top. Brilliant people guided by powerful intuitions, with little tolerance for theory. Never boring! But theory distrust has a downside, as shown by last week’s mixed reaction to the excellent rant about the game Dungeon Keeper… Continue reading Internet pricing, Dungeon Keeper and the case for Minimum Viable Free Product (MVFP).

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Categorized as Economics

Google believes they’re Bell Labs. They’re becoming GE. Long term danger? Becoming a regulated utility.

Google’s recent $3.2 billion acquisition of smart thermostat maker Nest was a fascinating move. The only comparable Google acquisitions by size are DoubleClick, YouTube and Motorola. All directly related to Google’s core online advertising business. But home appliance maker Nest is not about online advertising. Not directly anyway. And late breaking, Google has also acquired AI… Continue reading Google believes they’re Bell Labs. They’re becoming GE. Long term danger? Becoming a regulated utility.